While the first three rounds of your fantasy draft contain the players that will end up scoring the majority of the fantasy points for your team, the most important part of the draft actually occurs after round 8. These late round picks will separate the great teams from the good ones, the teams with upside from the teams that won't score above 100 points all season, and the balanced teams from the unbalanced ones. In today's post, I will detail 2 players that are a great value at their current ADP (average draft position). Both of these players are currently being drafted after the 8th round and should be late round targets in your draft .
Kelvin Benjamin (WR - Buffalo Bills) [10.11]
Kelvin Benjamin is a former first round draft pick with insane physical ability. Even at 6'5", he still ran a 4.61 second 40 yard dash, proving that he clearly has the physical tools to be successful in the NFL. In his rookie year he put up a solid stat line of 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and 9 touchdowns. That season he garnered an insane 32% target share. To give you perspective, Julio Jones in 2016 had a 24% target share.
From this information you might conclude that Kelvin Benjamin needs an absurd target share to produce for fantasy, but I find comfort in two key arguments that say otherwise.
- In 2016, after coming off of a torn ACL, Benjamin's target share deflated to 23%, yet he still put up a respectable stat line of 63 receptions for 941 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was enough to finish as the wide receiver 21 in standard leagues.
- In 2018, Benjamin will be the number one receiver for the Buffalo Bills. This is a team whose next best receiving option will be Lesean Mccoy, the running back, who may or may not play this season with the looming domestic violence allegations recently brought against him. Kelvin Benjamin will get a minimum 25% target share in his new offense, and being an extra year removed from his knee injury, he will definitely return value at his current ADP. Draft Benjamin in all formats and reap the benefits.
Update [8/6/18]: Corey Coleman is not a threat to Kelvin Benjamin. Coleman was given away for a 7th round pick in 2020 for a reason.
Alex Smith (QB - Washington Redskins) [12.06]
Alex Smith was an MVP candidate last season. Breaking away from his "game manager" label, he went off for 4,042 yards and 26 passing touchdowns, coupled with 355 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. Finishing as the QB 4, it would be expected that after his 2017 campaign Smith would see a significant jump in ADP. Yet, here we are, seeing him be drafted in the middle of the 12th round. Yes, I am aware that he has changed teams, but is his move to Washington a change for the worst? Luckily I don't have to convince you that its a change for the better, I just have to convince you that Alex Smith will outperform the quarterbacks going around him: [Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, and Jared Goff]. Alex Smith was not a fluke in 2017. His breakout season was a result of his abundance of weapons and positive game scripts.
Every year that Alex Smith has been a Kansas City Chief prior to last season, he's had a top 7 ranked defense, yet in 2017 Kansas City sported the 15th ranked defense. A worse defense equals more volume and more positive game scripts for a quarterback, which is why Smith was forced to throw the ball 500+ times and produce a career high in completions in 2017. Last season the Washington Redskins had the 27th ranked defense, and Washington has the same defensive coordinator from 2017 along with no major offseason pickups. This means that Alex Smith is again going to be playing on a team with a bad defense, which only benefits his volume.
Another relevant factor in this discussion is the offensive line. In 2017 Kansas City had the 16th ranked offensive line by Pro Football Focus. However, Pro Football Focus has the Washington Redskins ranked number 12 going into 2018. Washington's front 5 dealt with a ton of injuries last season, but the unit is currently healthy and should more then adequately give Smith time in the pocket and help produce an exceptional backfield combo led by Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson. Smith is going to have a plethora of weapons to propel him to a top 10 finish this year. At the tight end position he has Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, in the slot he has Jamison Crowder, and on the outside he has Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson. This offense is going to be high powered and you are going to want the man at the helm.
[Fantasy Football by J]
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