Rookie Running Back Fever

Rookies are amongst the hardest players to predict during the preseason. These Freshman have never played a snap in the NFL, making it very difficult for analysts to make projections for the regular season. This means that deciding when to select these rookies depends on your assessment of the risk versus the reward. In this forum I will give a analysis of each of the rookie running backs that I believe have a clear path to being fantasy relevant this upcoming season.


Saquon Barkley [Can't Trend Any Higher] - The number 2 overall pick out of Penn State has immense potential for opportunity with the New York Giants. The Giants have a revamped offensive line with the additions of Nate Solder, Patrick Omameh, and Will Hernandez. They have a deep passing attack with superstar Odell Beckham flanked by Sterling Shepherd and Evan Engram, and they have a competent quarterback in Eli Manning. Barkley possesses the pass-catching ability that you love to see in a workhorse back; someone who will get work at the goal line and on third down. Whether or not you will select Barkley in the first round will ultimately come down to what type of fantasy player you are and team construction. If you are a player who prefers upside with your first few picks, then Saquon is a quality option. He has the potential to finish as the rb1. However, if you want more safety from your top players, then I would suggest selecting a trusted wideout or a running back with a proven track record like Melvin Gordon. Team construction is important because if you expect to select safer options at wide receiver and tight end, then maybe you can afford to take some risk with your first round pick.

Sony Michel [Trending Down] - Sony was drafted out of Georgia by the New England Patriots towards the end of the first round. With the departure of Dion Lewis, there are 180 rushing attempts and 35 targets up for grabs in this backfield, which opened the door for Sony to make an immediate impact. Early in the preseason Sony was consistently going in the back of the 4th round of fantasy drafts, until it was reported that he injured his knee. Reports are conflicting whether Michel will be ready for week 1, but all doctors and reporters agree that the current timetable has him missing the entire preseason schedule. Due to the injury, Michel's ADP has dropped to the middle of the 6th round, while Rex Burkhead's ADP has risen to the top of the 6th. I anticipate that Sony's ADP will continue to drop, but I am hopeful that it will drop enough to present value. As a fantasy owner, you must make sure not to get caught up in the bad fantasy vibes of a player. When the whole fantasy community is down on a player, that needs to alert you that there is an opportunity to take advantage of value. While most rookie running backs have to struggle for early playing time, Sony is already projected to be in a timeshare on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. As his ADP continues to fall, assess his value accordingly.


Rashaad Penny [Trending Down] - Rashaad Penny is going to be a bust at the running back position. He has too many things going against him in order for him to return value at his current ADP.

• The offensive line. After being ranked 27th in 2017 the Seahawks front 5 is ranked 30th going into 2018. 
• Chris Carson. Carson was officially named the starter by Pete Carrol and ran with the first team in Seattle's first preseason game. This is coupled with the fact that Carson also vastly outperformed Penny in the preseason matchup. Penny will have to turn the tide quickly if he wants to have a chance of starting. 
• The Legion of Boom is done. Sherman is gone. Kam is gone. Earl doesn't want to be there. Bennet is gone. This team's defense is not what it used to be and they are going to be playing catch up in the majority of their matchups. They will not have the luxury of running the ball late in ball games. 

[Update: 8/15/18] - Penny is out 3-4 weeks with a broken middle finger.

Kerryon Johnson [Trending Up] - The Detroit Lions have consistently had one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL for multiple years now. Since 2013 the team has not had an 1,000 yard rusher, as they have relied on the arm of Matthew Stafford and the strength of their pass attack for their success.   Going into 2018 Detroit has vastly upgraded their offensive line, with the additions of T.J. Lang, Rick Wagner, and Frank Ragnow. Kerryon hopes to take advantage of this new front 5, while competing for snaps with Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, and LeGarrette Blount. Reports from camp are that Kerryon has vastly improved his pass blocking, which is one of the biggest hurdles for rookie running backs transitioning to the NFL. In the first week of preseason action, Kerryon performed exceptionally well, earning himself the top running back grade on pro football focus. The downside to his performance is that he was still on the field well into the 4th quarter, meaning that he is currently buried on the depth chart. Even though Kerryon is trending up, his 6th round price tag carries a lot of risk if he does not start getting consistent work quickly.

Ronald Jones II - Dirk Koetter recently made the announcement that Peyton Barber was the starter. I want to reassure people that this is not bad news, this is what was expected! Ronald Jones is not a first round pick and he was not going to start his career atop of the depth chart. The reason why Jones has such a high draft price is because of expectations for his talent to eventually win him the starting job. Jones did not develop a pass catching game at USC, so that does limit him in terms of ceiling. But, if he usurps Peyton Barber like the fantasy community expects him too, he will be a valuable, low-end RB2. However, Jones is currently being drafted in the middle of the 5th round, which is a bit rich for my blood for a backup that can't catch the ball on a team with a poor offensive line.

Kalen Ballage [Trending Down] - Kalen Ballage currently sits on the bottom of the Dolphins running back depth chart, below Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. To make matters worst, the 4th round pick out of Arizona State is currently in the doghouse. He was recently kicked out of the huddle by Ryan Tannehill during a practice session. Tannehill did this because Ballage missed a block on a defensive end due to his decision to run a route instead of checking to see if the lineman was rushing the quarterback. Boneheaded mistakes like this are going to make it harder for Ballage to make his ascension up the depth chart. This news coupled with the fact that Ballage is currently dealing with a concussion that he suffered in the Dolphins first preseason game means that he is trending downwards. If you do decide to take a shot on Ballage in the later rounds, it will be with the hope that he begins to contribute later in the season.



Royce Freeman [Trending Up] - Royce Freeman is the rookie, outside of Saquon Barkley, that I am most excited about this season. The first team offense for the Denver Broncos played about one full drive during their first preseason game. And even though Royce Freeman sits behind Devontae Booker on the depth chart, the first drive of preseason featured Booker and Freeman alternating reps, which points to my conclusion that the depth chart was just coach speak. Vance Joseph just wanted to keep Freeman motivated during the rest of the preseason. Freeman is in the running for this starting job, and his performance against the Minnesota Vikings first team defense only helps his case. He can adequately catch the ball and is a much better football player than Devontae Booker. Freeman will win people leagues this year.

Nick Chubb - Barring injury to the two guys in front of him (Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson), Chubb is not going to get enough consistent work to be started in any fantasy format. Duke Johnson has a lock on the third down back role in the Cleveland backfield, as he accounted for 73% of the running back receptions for the team in 2017. This means that Nick Chubb is going to be fighting for touches as the 1st and 2nd down thumper. The Browns had 288 rushing attempts in 2017. I'm going to be generous and say that the team reaches 325 rushing attempts this year, since I expect them to be competitive in more games. If Chubb is in a timeshare with Hyde and earns 35% of the total rushing attempts, then that only amounts to 113 attempts. 113 attempts with limited passing down work is not enough opportunity to be relevant in fantasy. Chubb is nothing more then a late round flyer... so don't draft him as more.

In 2016, Ezekiel Elliot finished as the RB2 and Jordan Howard finished as the RB10 in PPR leagues. In 2017, Alvin Kamara finished as the RB3, Kareem Hunt finished as the RB4, Leonard Fournette finished as the RB9, and Christian McCaffrey finished as the RB10 in PPR leagues. What do all of these players have in common? They were rookie running backs who finished inside the top 10 during their respective seasons. One of the rookies detailed in this forum is going to produce in a big way for your fantasy team in 2018. I hope this information helped you pinpoint who(m) you believe that will be.

[Fantasy Football by J]