"You wanna play rough? Ok....ok..... Say hello to my little friend!"
"Blow blow blow."
[You get it? Rapid Fire...Scarface...Blow Blow?.... OK I'll Stop]
Below this current sentence that you are reading and my scarface reference lie the reasons that I am drafting running back heavy in nearly every mock draft I do. 2020 IS THE YEAR OF THE WIDE RECEIVER. There are receivers going in the 4th round that can finish in the top 5, and there are receivers that are going outside the top 100 picks that can be weekly contributors for your team. Lucky for you, I'm going to give you my selections for late-round sleepers at the wide receiver position that are outside of the top 100 picks.
{ADP is based on 12 team PPR Redraft Leagues as of 8/7/20}
Desean Jackson [Current ADP: 11.11]
Despite the immense fantasy hype surrounding sophomore Miles Sanders this season, the Philidelphia Eagles are, in fact, going to have a passing attack in 2020. Number 1 receiver Alshon Jefferey, is most likely going to start the season on the PUP, which means that Mr. Jackson will have at least 6 weeks as the top option for Carson Wentz. 2019 was Jackson's first season with the Wentz led Eagles, and unfortunately, Jackson only played one healthy game throughout the entire campaign. However, in the one game Jackson played, while it might be a small sample size, Jackson recorded 8 catches for 154 yards and 2 scores. Jackson is nearing his 34th birthday, and an argument can be made that he is washed and any sustainable production is behind him. But just remember, Jackson is currently being drafted as the 51st receiver off the board. Taking the chance that there is some potent chemistry between Jackson and Wentz is well worth his ADP.
Henry Ruggs III [Current ADP: 9.11]
Ruggs enters the Raiders offense as the first receiver selected in the 2020 draft and the number one receiver on his depth chart. While the Las Vegas Raiders are in a full-on rebuild at the moment, they still boast an offense that ranked 8th in the league in passing yards per game in 2019. Any thorough scouting report will tell you that Ruggs is much more than just a deep threat, and if he stays healthy, it is nearly impossible for him not to outperform his current ADP of WR44. There is no reason why Darius Slayton, the third wide receiving option on the Giants, should be going before Ruggs in drafts. Fix that. Please.
Randall Cobb [Current ADP: Undrafted]
Yes, yes, Randall Cobb is still in the NFL. No, he's not a free agent. He signed with the Texans earlier this offseason. Yes, I seriously have him as a sleeper. Last season Cobb quietly racked up 828 receiving yards and 83 targets in a high-powered Dallas offense. Now he moves to Houston, who has the fourth most vacated targets in the league at 167. Deandre Hopkins departing for Arizona leaves a big hole in this Texans offense, and while the Texans did also sign Brandin Cooks this offseason, we know what Cook's' role is on an NFL team. Cooks is a vertical field stretcher, same as Will Fuller and the same as Kenny Stills. While Deandre Hopkins was magnificent at stretching the field, he made the majority of his damage in the middle of the field on short - intermediate routes. Randall Cobb is the only receiver on the roster that is comfortable playing in the slot, and it would not surprise me if Cobb led this young receiving core in targets and receptions.
Chris Conley [Current ADP: Undrafted]
How on earth is Chris Conley not being drafted in redraft leagues? In 2019 this guy had 90 targets, nearly 800 yards, and five scores. He did this despite only starting 14 games and enduring a rotating door at the QB position. Now he has a full training camp to work with sophomore Gardner Minshew, develop chemistry, and improve on those numbers. After finishing as the WR 43 last year with subpar QB play, he has the perfect combination of floor and upside to warrant a selection as a sleeper in the last round of your draft.
Anthony Miller [Current ADP: 12.02]
Like Conley, Anthony Miller too nearly topped the 90 target mark last season. Yet he is currently being drafted in the 12th round of redraft leagues. In Miller's rookie year, he posted 54 targets, 33 catches, and seven touchdowns, but in 2019 Miller posted 85 targets, 52 catches, and only two touchdowns. The lack of touchdown production in 2019 screams positive regression. Couple that positive regression with Chicago's 112 vacated targets, and we are left with a breakout opportunity for Miller in 2020. The Chicago passing attack ranked 26th in the NFL in passing yards per game last season. There is plenty of room for improvement and plenty of targets to go around in this offense. The question is, are you placing your money on Anthony Miller absorbing those targets, or are you a believer in a 68-year-old Jimmy Graham?
Corey Davis [Current ADP: Undrafted]
Devante Parker is currently being drafted as the 29th WR off the board. A year ago, this would look like a significant reach for a player that has never shown any consistent production in his career. In the first 4 years of Parker's career, he failed to top 750 yards, or surpass 4 touchdowns, then .... 2019 happened. If Devante Parker's 2020 draft position is any indication, all it takes is one year. There is no doubting Corey Davis' talent. Davis is a former 5th OVERALL selection in the 2017 NFL draft. Yet Corey drew the short straw and had to suffer through Marcus Mariota as his QB for the majority of his career thus far. Now he has a full training camp to work with Ryan Tannehill and improve upon his mediocre numbers. The Titans declined Davis' fifth-year option, which means that Davis will be playing for his future in Tennessee this season. Remember, all it takes is one season, and in 2021 it might be Davis that is being drafted as the WR 29 off the board.
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[Tony Montana Approves This Message]
Great analogy and awesome analysis! I always enjoy reading your take. If fantasy folks based their picks on your insights, they’d average returns well above the Dow Jones Industrial! Do you analyze stocks as well? If so, what are your picks!?
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