J's 2025 Fantasy Overreactions Through 2.5 Weeks

I know as a Gen Z man, being humble is like "in" right now, but if I'm being honest, sometimes I just can't help it. I like being right almost as much as I like reminding people that I was right. And yes, some people would call that conceited or sassy - ugh, god I hate that word. But to those people, I'd say they should look inward, because I only relish in reminding someone I was right when they were adamant that I was wrong in the first place!

Around this time last year, I released an article called "J's Fantasy Overreactions Through 2 Weeks", where I gave my opinions on some early-season developments & proposed some trades that fantasy managers should consider making. And to everybody's surprise except my own.... I nailed them! Let's take a look at the three trades I proposed: 

• Proposed Deal #1: I'd trade any tight end in fantasy for Bowers straight-up.
• Bowers finished as the TE1
• Proposed Deal #2: I'd trade Sam Laporta for Mark Andrews straight up 
• Mark Andrews finished as the TE6, while Laporta finished as the TE8
• Proposed Deal #3: I'd trade JK Dobbins for Tony Pollard straight up.
• Tony Pollard finished as the RB21, while JK Dobbins finished as RB24. However, Dobbins missed weeks 13-16 with an injury, so I'll only count that as half a win

And now that I've convinced you that some of what I say can actually be useful advice, let's get into my fantasy overreactions through the first 2.5 weeks of the 2025 season!

            

Matthew Golden is LOADING: 

YEP. I'm calling my shot on a guy who has only 2 receptions through 2 weeks. 

One thing I've noticed about football fans & fantasy players alike is that we are an impatient community. If a guy is highly drafted, we expect them to perform IMMEDIATELY, and if they don't, they are labeled as a bust and given up on. But luckily, WE can take advantage of this and buy low. 

Let's look at the facts of Golden's situation. 

1. Golden is the 1st wide receiver that the Packers have selected in the 1st round since 2002 
2. Green Bay is dealing with major injuries on offense, including Christian Watson (ACL), Jayden Reed (Collarbone), and Tucker Kraft (Knee Tweak)
3. Through 2 weeks, Matthew Golden is #1 in the NFL in average separation score (i.e. he's getting open with ease)
4. Golden ran the fastest 40-yard dash among wide receivers at the 2025 combine at 4.29 seconds
5. The Packers are ranked 12th in the NFL in passing yards per game 

 Furthermore, this trajectory isn't exactly unheard of for highly drafted receivers:

• Justin Jefferson started off his rookie year with 2 catches for 26 yards & 3 catches for 44 yards, and finished the year as the WR 6.
• Mike Evans started off his rookie year with 5 catches for 37 yards & 4 catches for 49 yards, and finished the year as the WR 13. 

Golden is a rookie learning the offense and building his chemistry with his quarterback, so be patient! The production will follow. 

Favorite Deal: I'd look to trade anyone at the bottom of my bench for Golden, like a Khalil Shakir type

Let's pump the brakes on Emeka Egbuka: 

All my friends know that I have no issue going against the grain whenever necessary. And when it came time to publish this article, I knew that this particular section would be my favorite to write up. 

Contrary to Matthew Golden, Emeka has started his rookie season on fire, scoring 3 touchdowns in only 2 games. BUT, the hype has reached absolutely ridiculous levels, and now is the time to get out of the Egbuka business. 

SO WHY ARE WE SELLING?

First, the Buccaneers are getting healthier at wide receiver. Chris Godwin is set to return any week now & sophomore Jalen McMillan is targeting week 5 to return to the lineup. As productive as Emeka has been with his opportunities, more weapons for Baker to spread the ball to will hurt Emeka's target share and consistency. 

Second, the Buccaneers are in injury hell across their offensive line. The LT Tristan Wirfs hasn't played this season with a knee injury. The RT Luke Goedeke is on injured reserve with a foot injury and a concussion. And the RG Cody Mauch is out for the season with a knee injury. What this means for the foreseeable future is that the Buccaneers' offense will focus on getting the ball out quickly and attacking the short/intermediate game. This lowers Egbuka's ceiling and will make it extremely difficult for him to produce at the rate that he is currently valued. 

Third, Emeka's production profile is a giant red flag. In fantasy, it's important to not just look at the fantasy points scored, but look at HOW players are scoring their points. For example, Emeka is averaging 18.3 PPR points per game - & - Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 19.9 PPR points per game. However, you should not value these players similarly. When evaluating production, the most consistent indicator of future success is targets. And the most inconsistent indicator of future success is touchdowns. And while Emeka and Jaxon are producing similarly so far this season in terms of fantasy points, Emeka is only averaging 7 targets a game, while Jaxon is averaging 12 targets a game but remains scoreless on the season. Always chase targets; the touchdowns will come. 

Favorite Deal: I'd look to trade Emeka Egbuka for Garrett Wilson or Keenan Allen +

        Terry McLaurin might just be a 2nd-Half Guy: 

Let's take a trip down memory lane. 

It's 2024, the beginning of the NFL season, and everyone is excited for Terry McLaurin because the Commanders FINALLY got him a real quarterback to throw him the ball. Washington starts the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a total of 57 points are scored!! Well, Terry had 2 catches for 17 yards and no touchdowns. The following week, the Commanders take on the NY Giants, where 39 points are scored!! Well, Terry had 6 catches for 22 yards and no touchdowns. 

Ok, back to present day. 

So far this year, Terry has disappointed those who drafted him, as he's failed to eclipse 10 fantasy points through two weeks. But, let's review the context! Terry was in a contract dispute with the Commanders for the majority of this offseason, and didn't begin practicing with the team until after he signed his extension on August 25th. Which means Terry only had 13 days to get his body in football shape before suiting up for week 1. It's no surprise that he needs a few games to get acclimated and ramp up his workload. 

This is why I'm BUYING Terry McLaurin wherever I can. If this season is anything like last season, these first two games are just the warm-up. Because once he ramps up, we've already seen what the Jayden Daniels - Terry McLaurin connection can look like.  

Favorite Deal: I'd look to trade Quentin Johnston for Terry McLaurin

[FantasyByJ]