LEONARD FOURNETTE
Leonard Fournette has to be one of my biggest stans in fantasy football. You guys can visit my article, "Does Everyone Deserve a Second Chance?", from June of last year if you want to see a history of my admiration. Currently, Fournette is being drafted at the 3.02 spot as the 16th RB off the board in PPR leagues. Year after year, Fournette is under drafted, and year after year, his production exceeds expectations. So this year, I am going to make it CRYSTAL CLEAR to you guys that he is more than worth his draft price. I'm even going to break up my argument into 3 parts so you can't get lost.
FOURNETTE ACTUALLY SUCKED LAST YEAR
Last year Fournette exploded for 1,152 rushing yards, 522 receiving yards, and 259 fantasy points, finishing as the RB7 in PPR leagues. Yet, these numbers don't tell the whole story.
In 2019 Fournette received 100 targets out of the backfield, 100 targets that only resulted in 76 receptions for 522 yards. 76 receptions on 100 targets put Fournette at a measly 76% catch rate, which last year ranks 31st out of all running backs who received at least 25 targets. Not to mention that gaining 522 yards on 76 receptions is a HISTORICALLY bad pace. Since 2010, there have been 99 running backs that have acquired 50 receptions in a season, and out of those 99 RB's, Fournette's 2019 yards/reception rate of 6.8 y/r ranks 87th. To sum up this section, even with the bad catch rate and the pathetic yards per reception rate, Fournette still finished the 2019 season as the RB7. If Fournette can just increase his production to a below-average pace instead of a historically bad pace, then we can see him improve on an already great RB7 finish. Let's not forget that Fournette was the 4th overall pick and first RB selected in the 2017 draft. This man is talented, and it can only be expected that he will improve on these awful splits that he exhibited during his 2019 campaign.
TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION
In addition to Fournette's low catch rate and laughable yards/reception rate, the Jaguars Running Back only scored 3 total touchdowns in his entire 2019 campaign despite acquiring 341 total touches. In 2019, running backs with 300 or more touches averaged 10.7 total touchdowns on the season, and that's including Fournettes total of 3. In the touchdown department, Leonard is due for positive regression in a BIG way, so expect him to rebound this coming year.
2020 PROJECTION
Fournette is on track to receive similar usage in 2020. Yes, Chris Thompson was brought in during the offseason, but remember..... its Chris Thompson! When's the last time that Chris Thompson had 50 receptions in a season?..... Never! Want to know another fun fact about Chris Thompson?! He has played all 16 games only ONCE in his career, and that was back in 2016. And during that 2016 campaign, Thompson topped out at 49 receptions. Thompson has only started one game in his 7-year career, and yet he still hasn't played more than 11 games last three seasons. Not only is Thompson injury-prone, but even if he does play all 16 games, his ceiling is capped at a modest 49 receptions. Sure, it is clear that Doug Marrone and company brought him in to perform the pass-catching role, and that he will take targets from Fournette, but Fournette doesn't need 100 targets to be successful. If Fournette can garner 60 targets and 52 receptions for 522 yards, then this line, coupled with his positive touchdown regression, is all he needs to outperform his draft price.
BUT!!
Don't forget that Fournette's fifth-year option was not picked up by the Jaguars. Now this turn of events means one of three things:
Either
A) Fournette will not be on the team in 2020
B) The Jaguars will run him into the ground this year, and he will be a free agent after the season
Or
C) The Jaguars will run him into the ground and will re-sign him in free agency after the season
If option one occurs, then fantasy owners will be notified of the news before the draft season, so that shouldn't be an issue. If option two OR three occurs, then Fournette's volume will at least sustain itself, if not increase this coming season.
In 2019 Fournette had a bad catch rate, a bottom of the barrel yards per reception rate, a laughable total of 3 touchdowns, a mediocre clip of 4.3 yards per carry, and STILL FINISHED AS THE RB7. Fournette is a former 4th overall pick that just had his option declined. He has been disrespected on a league-wide scale, and he is going to be playing for his future this coming year. All I know is that I want a piece of the action.
So there you have it. Leonard Fournette. Player Profile. 3 Parts. Draft Him. Thank You :)
[Please Comment & Share If You Enjoyed]
Leonard Fournette has to be one of my biggest stans in fantasy football. You guys can visit my article, "Does Everyone Deserve a Second Chance?", from June of last year if you want to see a history of my admiration. Currently, Fournette is being drafted at the 3.02 spot as the 16th RB off the board in PPR leagues. Year after year, Fournette is under drafted, and year after year, his production exceeds expectations. So this year, I am going to make it CRYSTAL CLEAR to you guys that he is more than worth his draft price. I'm even going to break up my argument into 3 parts so you can't get lost.
FOURNETTE ACTUALLY SUCKED LAST YEAR
Last year Fournette exploded for 1,152 rushing yards, 522 receiving yards, and 259 fantasy points, finishing as the RB7 in PPR leagues. Yet, these numbers don't tell the whole story.
In 2019 Fournette received 100 targets out of the backfield, 100 targets that only resulted in 76 receptions for 522 yards. 76 receptions on 100 targets put Fournette at a measly 76% catch rate, which last year ranks 31st out of all running backs who received at least 25 targets. Not to mention that gaining 522 yards on 76 receptions is a HISTORICALLY bad pace. Since 2010, there have been 99 running backs that have acquired 50 receptions in a season, and out of those 99 RB's, Fournette's 2019 yards/reception rate of 6.8 y/r ranks 87th. To sum up this section, even with the bad catch rate and the pathetic yards per reception rate, Fournette still finished the 2019 season as the RB7. If Fournette can just increase his production to a below-average pace instead of a historically bad pace, then we can see him improve on an already great RB7 finish. Let's not forget that Fournette was the 4th overall pick and first RB selected in the 2017 draft. This man is talented, and it can only be expected that he will improve on these awful splits that he exhibited during his 2019 campaign.
TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION
In addition to Fournette's low catch rate and laughable yards/reception rate, the Jaguars Running Back only scored 3 total touchdowns in his entire 2019 campaign despite acquiring 341 total touches. In 2019, running backs with 300 or more touches averaged 10.7 total touchdowns on the season, and that's including Fournettes total of 3. In the touchdown department, Leonard is due for positive regression in a BIG way, so expect him to rebound this coming year.
2020 PROJECTION
Fournette is on track to receive similar usage in 2020. Yes, Chris Thompson was brought in during the offseason, but remember..... its Chris Thompson! When's the last time that Chris Thompson had 50 receptions in a season?..... Never! Want to know another fun fact about Chris Thompson?! He has played all 16 games only ONCE in his career, and that was back in 2016. And during that 2016 campaign, Thompson topped out at 49 receptions. Thompson has only started one game in his 7-year career, and yet he still hasn't played more than 11 games last three seasons. Not only is Thompson injury-prone, but even if he does play all 16 games, his ceiling is capped at a modest 49 receptions. Sure, it is clear that Doug Marrone and company brought him in to perform the pass-catching role, and that he will take targets from Fournette, but Fournette doesn't need 100 targets to be successful. If Fournette can garner 60 targets and 52 receptions for 522 yards, then this line, coupled with his positive touchdown regression, is all he needs to outperform his draft price.
BUT!!
Don't forget that Fournette's fifth-year option was not picked up by the Jaguars. Now this turn of events means one of three things:
Either
A) Fournette will not be on the team in 2020
B) The Jaguars will run him into the ground this year, and he will be a free agent after the season
Or
C) The Jaguars will run him into the ground and will re-sign him in free agency after the season
If option one occurs, then fantasy owners will be notified of the news before the draft season, so that shouldn't be an issue. If option two OR three occurs, then Fournette's volume will at least sustain itself, if not increase this coming season.
In 2019 Fournette had a bad catch rate, a bottom of the barrel yards per reception rate, a laughable total of 3 touchdowns, a mediocre clip of 4.3 yards per carry, and STILL FINISHED AS THE RB7. Fournette is a former 4th overall pick that just had his option declined. He has been disrespected on a league-wide scale, and he is going to be playing for his future this coming year. All I know is that I want a piece of the action.
So there you have it. Leonard Fournette. Player Profile. 3 Parts. Draft Him. Thank You :)
[Please Comment & Share If You Enjoyed]
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