Sunday Blues & Predictions

This past Sunday, I woke up at 9 am and watched highlights of Arian Foster and Tyler Eifert..... yeah, that's how bad it is without the NFL in my life. BUT, even though I'm not able to watch NFL football, I still sure as hell can do a job I'm not qualified for and predict where some of this year's free agents will be landing! 

Predicting free agents is a lot like predicting how a spring break weekend will go. You develop all these expectations about how cool and sexy these fun new memories will be, only to be disappointed when you have the exact same experience you had the year prior. Most high profile free-agents will unfortunately end up back where they played their last season, but WHAT IF.... What if this year Tyla finally invites you to a private party on her yacht? What if Kirk Cousins forms a new contender in Georgia? 

Let's get into the predictions:

Calvin Ridley -- WR (29 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Tennessee Titans

Calvin enters free agency with a 1,000-yard, 8-touchdown season under his belt from his one season in Jacksonville. After missing nearly two years of his career due to injury, mental health issues, and a hefty gambling suspension, Calvin will want to take the biggest payday possible and try to assert himself as a top-end WR1 in this league. With the third most cap space in the league and a young QB who needs quality options to develop, the Titans will open up their wallets and take a swing at the top WR on most free agency boards. 

Tony Pollard -- RB (26 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard had a very disappointing season by most accounts. But - if you split his season into two halves, there are two very different LEVELS of disappointing. From weeks 1 - 10, Pollard graded as Pro Football Focus' No. 39 rusher, while from weeks 11 - 17, TP graded as PFF's No. 1 rusher. Pollard has even come out and said that throughout the 2023 season, he didn't feel 100% healed from his 2022 foot injury until week 10 @ Carolina. Now, will other teams care about his assertion? Maybe not. But I think it will factor into what Pollard decides to pursue. I think TP wants to be in Dallas, so he bets on himself and takes a cheap one-year deal to stay in Dallas and prove to Jerry and the front office that he can be the bell-cow. 

Christian Wilkins -- DT (28 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Chicago Bears

Da Bears make their first big splash of free agency and sign Wilkins to a jaw-dropping deal. Wilkins is by far the top defensive player in free agency, and with the contract he is likely to command, I think only a few teams have the cap space to afford him. This is a big season for Eberflus and co., and while revamping an underperforming offense will be a focal point of the offseason, Wilkins will surely be a top priority for the defense-focused head coach. In Indianapolis, Eberflus got to work with Deforest Buckner, and with Matt's hands now at the helm in Chicago, I think he goes and gets the engine to his defense. 

Kirk Cousins -- QB (35 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Atlanta Falcons 

YOU LIKE THAT?!?!

This prediction was one of the easiest and hardest of the list. Kirk is one of those free agents that everyone knows only has 2 likely predictions - in this case, those two landing spots are Minnesota and Atlanta. 

We also already know that the Falcons are going to offer Kirk the bag - the only piece of the puzzle that we don't already know is what Kirk wants to do. Either he takes a pay cut to stay in Minnesota or accepts the money and takes his talents to Atlanta with their handful of young weapons. I lean to the latter because I don't understand where Minnesota benefits by keeping the veteran QB. Their franchise cornerstones are Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, all 26 or younger. Unless the Vikings think they can win it all in the next 2-3 years, they project better long-term to pair their young weapons with a younger QB that better fits the team's timeline. 

Derrick Henry -- RB (30 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Baltimore Ravens

King Henry has 1 maybe 2 years left as a starter in this league. Most RB's get phased out around age 28-29, but Derrick Henry has always been a cut above the rest when it comes to athleticism. With his concerning age and the enormous amount of tread on the tires, Derrick's next team will be a contender who thinks they are one small piece away from title contention. When you look at the contenders and weed out the teams that are already invested heavily at RB, you are left with the Ravens and the Cowboys. With my prior prediction that Dallas takes another shot at Tony Pollard, that leaves Baltimore for King Henry. With J.K. Dobbins out the door, Harbaugh will acquire the veteran RB to form (on paper) one of the most dangerous read options in recent memory. 

Saquon Barkley -- RB (27 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Houston Texans

Saquon is tough to predict. There's little doubt about his talent, but at 27 years old with extensive durability issues, does he have a substantial market? YES. People often forget that the NFL is a business first. Signing Saquon Barkley to your club means season ticket sales and media coverage skyrocketing. After a cinderella story first year as HC, Demeco Ryans will overpay to get his young QB a safety valve, and in the process will lose star edge Jonathan Greenard to free agency. I foresee a deal north of 14 million annually for the star RB. 

Josh Jacobs -- RB (26 Years Old)

• My Prediction -- Chicago Bears

The other big fish at the running back position, I believe Jacobs signs in Chicago as the second big splash by the Bears. At 26 years old, Jacobs has a bit more flexibility to his market, as he can sign a 2 year deal and hope to acquire another multi year deal in  a couple off-season's. There's a lot of excitement surrounding Chicago and their draft capital going into next year, and I think they offer Jacobs the perfect combination of money and playoff contention.