Hatred and Long-Distance Sleepers

I promise I'm not a negative person, but god I HATE summer in NYC. 

I hate the heat. I hate sweating. I hate all the extra children on the streets. I hate being forced to wear pants to work even though it feels like 98 degrees without factoring in humidity. I hate the smell of dog shit when it's cooking on the pavement. I hate the bugs that come out of nowhere. I hate the increased electric bill from running my A/C. I hate the increased traveling prices. I hate all the tourists who decide to fly here, immediately find the street that I am on, and walk slowly in front of me. I hate every train station that is 95 degrees. And most of all I hate people who try to convince themselves and others that summer in this city is so amazing. 

You know who you are. 

Now, let's get into the sleepers. Every offseason some players are selfish dickheads and change teams with no regard for what it will do to the fantasy community. Right when you are finally feeling confident about who they are, what they bring to the table, and what to expect from them as a partner, POOF they move to the middle of nowhere. And sure, there may be perks within their new home, but is different always better? The truth is that long-distance is hard, and we don't really know what to expect when our fantasy partners change teams. My job is to present my argument for a couple of players whose new situations don't worry me quite as much as the others. 

Here are 2 sleepers who might have moved away from home, but I'm fine reaching for them in drafts.  

Darnell Mooney - Atlanta Falcons WR (Currently being drafted at WR65)

Most fantasy podcasts and websites will advise you to draft high-upside lottery tickets once you get into the later rounds of drafts, and that's a solid strategy for maximizing value out of your later picks. But, sometimes drafting the guy that has a realistic path towards a WR30ish finish can pay dividends as you navigate injuries, bye weeks, and the trade market. Enter Darnell Mooney. 

This year, Mooney finds himself in Atlanta, where he is firmly entrenched as the WR2 in a Kirk Cousins-led offense. And just how valuable is that? Well, let's look at last year! Weeks 1-5 is the sample size we have where Kirk Cousins was healthy and had his full arsenal of weapons in Minnesota. At full strength, the WR2 for Minnesota in 2023 was Jordan Addison, so he is who we will be looking at for this comparison. In those first 5 weeks, Addison was the WR30 (surprise), averaging 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game in the high-powered Vikings offense, which featured elite receiving options in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. 

Mooney is in a similar situation this year. Atlanta is a high-powered Kirk Cousins-led offense projected to feature elite receiving options Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but there is sneaky upside here for Mooney. Going into 2023, Jefferson & Hockenson were proven target-getters in Minnesota, but Drake London & Kyle Pitts do not have that same profile as we look at 2024. The fantasy community HOPES that both players can be even 75% of what Jefferson and Hockenson were to start last year, and that is exactly where the opportunity for Darnel Mooney lies. If either London or Pitts is not what we hope they can be this season, that opens up targets and opportunities for Mooney to establish himself in this offense. Health permitting, Mooney has a solid chance to produce numbers around the WR30 and sneaky upside to push into weekly flex consideration within this offense. And if I'm wrong, FUCK IT, he's only going to cost you a 14th-round pick. 

Oh, and Rondale Moore just got placed on season-ending IR - sooo yeah theres that.  

Ezekiel Elliot - Dallas Cowboys RB (Currently being drafted at RB29)

ZEEKEEEEEE!!!

Ezekiel finds himself in an almost comically obvious position for sneaky fantasy value this upcoming season. And honestly, it baffles me every time I complete mock drafts and see guys like Austin Ekeler and Jaylen Warren going ahead of him. There are only two valid arguments to be out on Zeke this year - either you think that he is washed or you think Rico Dowdle is going to run away with the job. Now, allow me to disprove both points. 

1. Let's start with the latter... Rico Dowdle. It almost seems like the fantasy community regards Dowdle as this young, hungry back who is finally getting his chance to shine. When in actuality, Dowdle is 26 years old and has been in the league since 2020. He's a career backup who is supposed to magically become talented? Was he talented when he went undrafted? Was he talented when he signed with Dallas as an UDFA and totaled 7 carries for 24 yards in 2020? Ohhhh wait my bad he must have become talented when he suffered a season-ending hip injury in 2021 followed by a season-ending ankle injury in 2022. The reality is that 26-year-old career backup running backs do not magically gain talent 4 years into their careers, and the same is true for Mr. Dowdle. 
2. Ok now for the good stuff, Zeke being washed. Well..... yeah I would agree. But WHO CARES?!?! This is a fantasy football column, not an OPOY list. Zeke scoring fantasy points is going to be powered through him catching passes and scoring touchdowns, not making 5 guys miss on 40+ yard touchdowns. We all watched Zeke in New England last year and can agree that he had lost a step in comparison to his days of fantasy glory. Well, let's take a deeper look at last year when he was washed and on a bottom 3 offense in the league. From when Zeke assumed the starting role in week 14 through the rest of the season, he was the RB7, averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Paced out through 2023's 17-game season, that would put him firmly in RB1 territory around guys like Travis Etienne (16.6 FPPG) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16.1 FPPG). Zeke does not need to be talented, spry, or his former explosive self, he just needs to catch the ball and fall into the endzone, which he will have PLENTY of opportunities to do on one of the best offenses in football. 

[FantasybyJ]