J's Fantasy Overreactions Through 2 Weeks

 I don't have a long-winded intro about my life for you guys this time -- so let's get right into it. 

Here are my fantasy overreactions 2 weeks into the 2024 season. 

Brock Bowers is a LEAGUE WINNER: 

It's really funny. Because going into the 2022 season, it was a known fact that rookie tight-ends just don't produce. With the plethora of things that tight ends are expected to do in offensive schemes, it just usually takes a few years for players to get up to speed and start producing in ways that are useful for fantasy. Then, the unthinkable happened, Sam Laporta put up a 86 reception, 889 yard, 10 touchdown season as a rookie. And oddly enough, I think Brock Bowers is about to put that season to shame. 

Through two games, Bowers is on pace for 128 receptions and 1,326 yards, and he's doing this all AS A ROOKIE. The fantasy community is hot and bothered over a few rookie performances from this past week, but only Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison are being mentioned in most conversations. Those wideouts are garnering all the attention because they scored touchdowns, while Bowers remains scoreless on the season. But, this presents an excellent opportunity to buy high on Brock Bowers. People will think of Brock as the clear 2nd option in the Raiders offense, but I'm not fully convinced that's true. Davante is indisputably the most talented receiver on the team, but in terms of target volume, Bowers trails Davante by only 1 target on the season. 

Bowers is my TE1 for the rest of the season, barring unforeseen or drastic changes in the fantasy landscape. I'd be willing to trade big names like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle + a little extra in order to land Bowers on my roster. 

Favorite Deal: I'd trade any tight end in fantasy for Bowers straight-up.

The Detroit Lions are NOT what they were last year: 

Ahhhhhhh. The 2023 Lions. MAN those were the times. A high-powered, consolidated offense that supported multiple elite fantasy options. Well, those days are over because of the arrival of one Jameson Williams. 

While Jameson was on the team for most of last year, it was in a completely different capacity: 

In 2023, Williams never once surpassed a 70% snap share. (He has hit 85% & 92% so far in 2024)

In 2023, Williams never once surpassed 7 targets. (He has received 9 & 11 targets so far in 2024)

In 2023, Williams never once reached 70 receiving yards. (He has 121 & 79 yard games so far in '24)

This is a completely different player that we are seeing this year, and as a result the Lions offense has evolved. What was once a consolidated fantasy-rich offense has now turned into a 49er's like "who's game is it going to be" type of squad. With Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta, & Amon-Ra St. Brown all in play on passing downs, plus a top-tier rushing attack in Jahmyr Gibbs, & David Montgomery, there is a much higher chance for any option to disappear on a week-to-week basis. 

Amon-Ra should command enough of the target share each week to stay viable as a lower-end WR1, but he is no longer the ultra-consistent high-end WR1 that he has been for fantasy football. BUT, this is officially a CAUTION to all Sam Laporta managers. In most drafts, Laporta went as one of the top 2 tight ends off the board, and while tight ends overall have struggled mightily so far this season, I wouldn't be expecting Laporta to return to his rookie-year dominance any time soon. He will obviously have his blow-up games, but barring an injury to one of the other receiving options, Laporta is going to be extremely volatile week-to-week. I'd look to take advantage of his name value & draft capital, and move him ASAP. 

Favorite Deal: I'd trade Sam Laporta for Mark Andrews straight up 

Tony Pollard is really fucking good: 

The Tennessee Titans offense is all over media outlets for all the wrong reasons since their QB Will Levis has made it his mission to commit 1 jaw-dropping turnover a game in quite spectacular fashion. As a result, the team is 0-2, and their fans are likely already looking toward the 2025 draft. But hidden beneath the Will Levis memes is a diamond in the rough, Tony Pollard. Two things are needed to create a fantasy RB1: elite volume and elite talent, and yes I'm alluding to the fact that Tony Pollard is going to finish top 12 this year. 

Through two weeks, Pollard has registered at least 16 rushing attempts and 4 targets per game. Not only is this elite volume, it's 1 of 1 volume. No other RB in the NFL has hit those numbers through 2 games. This presents a safe baseline for production and an almost guaranteed floor of double-digit points week-to-week. 

Now, elite talent is where it almost always gets subjective. Some people look at yards or touchdowns as indicators of talent, but I lean away from those stats because they heavily fluctuate based on situation. (Jamaal Williams' big year in Detroit and D'Andre Swift's year in Philadelphia are both great examples). One stat I love to use that takes out the variance of situation is yards after contact per attempt (YAC/attempt). This stat tracks how many yards a running back gains after he is first touched, and then averages that over the total amount of carries they received. Hundreds of running backs can run through a wide-open hole that their offensive line has opened up, but how many can get hit in the backfield and still turn it into a positive gain. THAT is a true indicator of talent. So, let's look at Tony Pollard's YAC across the last few seasons. 

2022 was the year Pollard put the league on notice, as he put up over 1,350 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns, all while only starting 4 games. It was after this year that Pollard was reagrded as one of the next elite talents at the position. During that season, Pollard recorded a YAC/attempt of 2.6 yards. 

**For context, Saquon Barkley recorded a YAC/attempt of 2.8 yards during his great rookie season **

2023 was Pollard's first year back from a fractured fibula, and in their first season post-injury, running backs almost always experience an initial dip in production as they ramp back up to full speed. Pollard said that it wasn't until week 10 last season that he felt 100% back from his injury. So, I'm going to split Pollard's 2023 season into two parts. 

    From weeks 1-9, Pollard recorded a YAC/attempt of 1.8 yards. 

    But from week 10 onward, Pollard's YAC/attempt rose to 2.2 yards. 

Now, for the big reveal. Through two games in Tennessee, Pollard is recording a YAC/attempt of **drumroll please** 2.6 yards!! -- back in line with his explosive 2022 season. With his injury clearly behind him and a consistent baseline for production, Pollard is set up to have a big year in 2024.

Favorite Deal: I'd trade JK Dobbins for Tony Pollard straight up. And I'd be comfortable adding a piece on the Dobbins side if necessary. 

[FantasybyJ]