From a fantasy perspective, the Minnesota Vikings are projected to be, well, perfect! But in this forum, I will explain why it is smart to lower expectations for the reigning NFC North champions.
Projections for the Vikings offense for 2018 are optimistic, but let's analyze just how optimistic. At the quarterback position, we have Kirk Cousins, who without having played a regular season snap in purple and gold, is being drafted as the 7th quarterback off the board. At the wide receiver position, we have Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, being drafted as the 11th and 14th wide receivers respectively. In the backfield, we have Dalvin Cook as the 11th back taken off the board. And to top it all off, Kyle Rudolph is being drafted as the 8th overall tight end.
But before I just flat out tell you that it is highly improbable for this to all come to fruition, I will back up my arguments with multiple years of statistics. I'm going to go back 4 years, and see if even the best offenses of each season respectively have been able to sustain multiple top fantasy finishes.
Best Overall Offenses Past 4 Years
In 2017 the New England Patriots were the top ranked offense, as they led the league in total yards and points scored. The team finished with the #2 overall tight end, #5 overall quarterback, #13 and #45 overall wide receivers, and the #19 overall running back.
In 2016 the New Orlean Saints were ranked the top offense. The team finished with the #16 overall tight end, #3 overall quarterback, #7 and #11 overall wide receivers, and the #9 overall running back.
In 2015 the New Orlean Saints were again the top-ranked offense. But to dispel any arguments that this specific offense cannot produce 5 top fantasy products, I will look at the second top scoring offense, the Arizona Cardinals. In 2015 the Cardinals finished with the #35 overall tight end, #5 overall quarterback, and the #7 and #23 overall wide receivers. The backfield featured the late season breakout of David Johnson, who was the number 1 RB over the last 6 weeks of the season.
In 2014 the New Orlean Saints were once again the top-ranked offense. For the reasons listed above, I will go with the second highest ranked offense of 2014 which were the Pittsburgh Steelers. The team finished with the #11 overall tight end, #6 overall quarterback, #1 overall wide receiver, and the #1 overall running back. However, there was no established wide receiver 2, as Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant battled for the job throughout the course of the season.
The Main Idea
Do you see a trend or pattern here that shows that the top offenses in the NFL can sustain a top 7 quarterback, two top 14 wide receivers, a top 11 running back, and a top 8 tight end? Because I don't.
I am not able to tell you which member(s) of the Vikings offense will not meet expectations, but the information that I have provided you with proves that it is foolishly unrealistic to assume respective top 12 production from about 5 players on any single team. Outside of Kirk Cousins, the Vikings offensive pieces have a large range of outcomes.
The final and most important point that I will end this forum with is that this entire analysis was conducted under the presumption that the Minnesota Vikings will have the top offense in the NFL in 2018. Not only is this projection bullish considering the fact that the Vikings offense will be operating under a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, but also because the Vikings offensive line is charted to be near the bottom of the NFL this season. Combine these general offensive concerns with the surplus of high powered offenses going into 2018, and you do not get a top 3 offense out of Minnesota. (The Packers, Patriots, Steelers, and Saints all have veteran quarterbacks with talented, proven offenses that have a history of high performance)
Update [8/17/18]: The Vikings apparently have a "one-two", backfield with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. If this combo comes to fruition, then Dalvin Cook will not have enough carries to finish as a top 10 running back. However, it could just be coach speak.
But before I just flat out tell you that it is highly improbable for this to all come to fruition, I will back up my arguments with multiple years of statistics. I'm going to go back 4 years, and see if even the best offenses of each season respectively have been able to sustain multiple top fantasy finishes.
Best Overall Offenses Past 4 Years
In 2017 the New England Patriots were the top ranked offense, as they led the league in total yards and points scored. The team finished with the #2 overall tight end, #5 overall quarterback, #13 and #45 overall wide receivers, and the #19 overall running back.
In 2016 the New Orlean Saints were ranked the top offense. The team finished with the #16 overall tight end, #3 overall quarterback, #7 and #11 overall wide receivers, and the #9 overall running back.
In 2015 the New Orlean Saints were again the top-ranked offense. But to dispel any arguments that this specific offense cannot produce 5 top fantasy products, I will look at the second top scoring offense, the Arizona Cardinals. In 2015 the Cardinals finished with the #35 overall tight end, #5 overall quarterback, and the #7 and #23 overall wide receivers. The backfield featured the late season breakout of David Johnson, who was the number 1 RB over the last 6 weeks of the season.
In 2014 the New Orlean Saints were once again the top-ranked offense. For the reasons listed above, I will go with the second highest ranked offense of 2014 which were the Pittsburgh Steelers. The team finished with the #11 overall tight end, #6 overall quarterback, #1 overall wide receiver, and the #1 overall running back. However, there was no established wide receiver 2, as Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant battled for the job throughout the course of the season.
The Main Idea
Do you see a trend or pattern here that shows that the top offenses in the NFL can sustain a top 7 quarterback, two top 14 wide receivers, a top 11 running back, and a top 8 tight end? Because I don't.
I am not able to tell you which member(s) of the Vikings offense will not meet expectations, but the information that I have provided you with proves that it is foolishly unrealistic to assume respective top 12 production from about 5 players on any single team. Outside of Kirk Cousins, the Vikings offensive pieces have a large range of outcomes.
The final and most important point that I will end this forum with is that this entire analysis was conducted under the presumption that the Minnesota Vikings will have the top offense in the NFL in 2018. Not only is this projection bullish considering the fact that the Vikings offense will be operating under a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, but also because the Vikings offensive line is charted to be near the bottom of the NFL this season. Combine these general offensive concerns with the surplus of high powered offenses going into 2018, and you do not get a top 3 offense out of Minnesota. (The Packers, Patriots, Steelers, and Saints all have veteran quarterbacks with talented, proven offenses that have a history of high performance)Update [8/17/18]: The Vikings apparently have a "one-two", backfield with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. If this combo comes to fruition, then Dalvin Cook will not have enough carries to finish as a top 10 running back. However, it could just be coach speak.
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