Does Everyone Deserve a Second Chance?

Leanord Fournette
Leanord Fournette has as many red flags as they come. Injury prone? Yes. A Bad relationship with his coach? Yes. Suspension history? Yes. Limited pass catching ability? You bet. So why is he being drafted at the top of the 3rd round? The answer... is opportunity! Fournette is the only player available in the third round that is guaranteed 20 carries each week. This plethora of consistent carries provides him with a floor, giving him a safe week to week baseline. Fournette also has an opportunity to make a more significant splash in the passing game.

In 8 games played last season, Fournette totaled 439 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns at a clip of 3.3 yards per carry. This means that over the season he was on pace for 878 yards and 10 touchdowns in the rushing department. He also totaled 185 receiving yards, 22 receptions, and 1 touchdown through the air in 8 total games last season. This produced a 16-game pace of 370 receiving yards, 44 receptions, and 2 receiving touchdowns.  Doesn't seem too impressive, right? In 2018, T.J Yeldon was the target leader out of the Jaguars backfield with 78 targets, 55 receptions, 487 yards, and 4 touchdowns through the air. However, Mr. Yeldon is no longer in town, as he has departed for Buffalo. If you distribute even half of Yeldon's receiving production to Fournette's 2018 totals, then he ends up with 613 yards, 71 receptions, and 4 receiving touchdowns.  These statistics are just scraping the surface of what Fournette is capable of in 2019. His risk of injury and future suspension have not disappeared. However, he has a realistic opportunity to improve on his disappointing 3.3 yards per carry, has a chance to take control of the running back targets, and has a solid floor of 20 carries a game. The Jaguars offense is going to run through Fournette and, barring injury or suspension, he can only return value at the top of the 3rd round.

VERDICT: Second Chance it is!


Carlos Hyde
Boy has Mr. Hyde had an eventful couple of years in the NFL. During the 2017-2018 season, Carlos Hyde was the three down workhorse for the San Francisco 49ers with a PPR finish of RB #8. Then on March 15, 2018, Hyde signed a three-year contract with the Cleveland Browns. After an up and down first half to the season, Hyde got traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 19th, 2018. However, after only a couple months with Jacksonville, he was released on March 8th and signed on March 9th by the Kansas City Chiefs. Now here we are, nearing the start of 2019 with no idea of what to do with Carlos Hyde.

Statistically, Kansas City is an excellent destination for a running back. In Andy Reid's 20-year head coaching career, his starting running back has finished lower then RB#17 in only 4 seasons.  That is an 80% success rate of producing at least a mid-range RB2. However, Carlos Hyde is not the starting running back for Andy Reid. The Chiefs recently lost their superstar running back Kareem Hunt, who has found a new home in Cleveland. Hunt's absence leaves Damien Williams as the only threat in the Chiefs backfield, but, quoiting offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, "Damien Williams is our starter, and we expect him to excel in that role." Averaging well over 5 yards a carry in 2018 after earning the starting gig, Williams has gained the trust of Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. Williams is also an exceptional pass catcher which further distinguishes him from Carlos Hyde. Unless you are the Damien Williams owner, do not draft Carlos Hyde at his current ADP of 9.09. He is nothing more than a handcuff, so don't draft him as such.

VERDICT: No, He DoEs nOt deServE a seCond chAncE.



Le'veon Bell
Le'veon Bell is a historic player, and his 2018 fantasy season was definitely one to remember. With an ADP of 1.01 in PPR, Standard, and Half-Point PPR formats, Bell scored a total of 0 fantasy points in 2018. 0 touchdowns, 0 carries, 0 minutes on the field. Contrary to what someone new to fantasy football might think, no, Le'veon Bell didn't get injured. He willingly chose not to play football in hopes of staying healthy and signing a max contract in the offseason. Well, now he has that contract, and as a member of the New York Jets, his fantasy value must be re-evaluated. There's no denying that Bell destroyed the fantasy championship hopes of anyone who drafted him last year. However, this year is different. With the Steelers, Bell was a fantasy superstar, but much of his success can be credited to his situation. He was playing with arguably the best receiver in football, a top 5 run blocking offensive line, and a veteran gun-slinger quarterback. Le'veon has a particular run style, which features him patiently waiting for his blockers to open holes before he explodes through them upfield. While consistent in production throughout his career, this style of running relies on a good offensive line and few men in the box. This is not going to be his experience in New York.

Le'veon Bell has played five seasons in Pittsburgh. Four out of those five years the Steelers O-line was ranked inside the top 7 for run blocking, and during those four years, Bell averaged 4.625 yards per carry. During the only season where the Steelers O-line ranked outside the top 7 (15), Bell averaged a putrid 3.5 yards per carry. Now transition to the New York Jets, a team who finished with the 32nd best run-blocking O-line in the league last year. (There are only 32 teams in the league.) There is a major risk that Bell's efficiency will take a major dip and regress towards the 3.5 yards a carry that we saw in 2013. The Jets also boast a receiving core composed of Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Chris Herndon, which I doubt is going to keep any defensive coordinator up at night. Sophomore Sam Darnold's passing attack is going to be average at best, which is going to result in more and more defenders crowding the box. Bell's excellence in the passing game and plethora of touches is going to provide him with a consistent RB2 floor. But the likely increase of men in the box and lack of skill on his new offensive line is going to cap the upside that you need from your first round pick.

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, placing your prospects in tiers or general groups is an important skill to have. Once you have your groups established, you can compare the players within them to produce your rankings. The expert consensus tier 1 contains Barkley, Elliot, McCaffrey, and Kamara, in no particular order. Tier 2 is a bit more crowded, with candidates including Gurley, Gordon, Bell, David Johnson, Connor, Mixon, Cook, and Chubb. Bell's lack of upside and injury history do not warrant selecting him at his current ADP of 1.09. Players in the same tier like David Johnson and Melvin Gordon are better selections to headline your fantasy squad going into 2019.

VERDICT: nO SeCoNd CHanCe fOr YoU!



[Fantasy Football by J]