A Trey From The Four-Nine

TREY LANCE

SIR LANCE THE 49TH

50 SHADES OF TREY

Trey Lance, rookie QB for the San Francisco 49ers is one of the best late-round selections and sleeper options of 2021. Lance has a clear and straightforward path to fantasy glory, and even though Lance is a QB, his path is clear because of his legs! 

In 2020, 4 quarterbacks finished with more than 500 rushing yards. 

Lamar Jackson with 1005. 

Kyler Murray with 819. 

Cam Newton with 592. 

 & Russell Wilson with 513. 

3 out of the 4 finished as top 10 QBs.

In 2019, 3 quarterbacks finished with more than 500 rushing yards. 

Lamar Jackson with 1206. 

Kyler Murray with 544. 

& Josh Allen with 510. 

All 3 finished as top 10 QB's. 

2018. Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson.

ALERT! 2018 takes deeper analysis as neither Josh Allen nor Lamar Jackson was the starter for all 17 weeks. 

Deshaun Watson finished as a top 10 QB. 

Lamar Jackson only had the starting gig from week 11 to week 17, and during those 7 weeks, Lamar was the QB 8. 

Josh Allen won the starting gig in week 2 but was inactive with an injury from week 7 through week 10. From week 2 to week 6, Allen was horrific, putting up a measly 11.44 points per game in ESPN standard QB scoring leagues. However, after returning from injury, Allen was the QB 3 from week 11 to week 17. 

This [500 rushing yard - Top 10] quarterback pattern continues as long as you are willing to look!

2017. Cam Newton (754). Russell Wilson (586). Oh, would you look at that, the QB 1 and QB 2 on the year. 

2016. Tyrod Taylor (580). QB 8 on the year. TYROD TAYLOR.

I'll stop here to keep the article relatively short, but the data shows that once a quarterback eclipses that 500 rushing yards mark, they are almost guaranteed a top 10 finish in standard-scoring leagues. Over the last five seasons, there have been 13 instances where quarterbacks have eclipsed the 500 rushing yard mark, and out of those 13, there were only 2 cases where a quarterback didn't finish within the top 10 on a points per game basis. Cam Newton in 2020, who had a supporting cast of Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd, and Josh Allen for 5 weeks in 2018, who had a supporting cast of Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman, and Terelle Pryor. 

MEANWHILE, 

Trey Lance has a supporting cast of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle to go along with a top 2 rushing attack in the league and the 9th ranked offensive line going into 2021 via PFF! If we count Josh Allen's split 2018 narrative as half a hit and half a miss, then we are left with 11.5/13 over the last five years. Almost 90% percent!  

Now, even if I can prove that once a QB eclipses 500 rushing yards, they are destined for fantasy greatness, can I prove that Trey Lance will eclipse 500 rushing yards? Well... not exactly. We can't forget that Lance is still a rookie and has not yet taken an NFL regular-season snap. However, we do have his collegiate data andddddd it does give us a glimpse of what to expect. 

In 2019, Lance's only full season in college, Lance finished with 169 rushing attempts for 1,100 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. No matter how big the talent gap is from Lance's college opposition to what he will face in the pros, projecting this dual-threat quarterback to pace 500 rushing yards when given the starting job is far from a hot take. Do you know what kind of rushing numbers Kyler Murray put up in college during his only full season? 140 rushing attempts for 1,001 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers look pretty comparable to me!

One debate I frequently hear is, "Why Trey Lance over Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence??" My answer is always that there is a stark difference between a quarterback that can run and a quarterback that looks to run. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields CAN run. But they are both most comfortable as pocket passers and have little game history of QB-designed runs. On the other hand, players like Trey Lance, Cam Newton, and Kyler Murray are quarterbacks that LOOK to run. All three are experienced with QB power, read option, triple option, and QB draws, setting themselves up for higher rushing ceilings at the professional level. The precedence for Trey Lance's success has already been set! Lance has the collegiate production and supporting cast to quickly turn into a fantasy superstar. With a championship week matchup with the pathetic Houston Texans defense on tap in week 17 as the icing on the cake, do whatever you can to acquire Trey Lance and let the burner slowly cook.

If you have not drafted yet, draft him. If you have already drafted, go out and trade for him or pick him up off the wire. It might not be week 1 or week 4, but once he gets the gig, just sit back and laugh as every fantasy analyst argues over how much waiver priority to burn on Lance while he's already on your roster. 

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[Come to Chicago Jimmy G]

[FantasybyJ]