Some RB Analysis Or Whatever

I promise y'all..... I really did try and stay away. I've been focused on work, I tried to go viral on TikTok, I even started listening to my girlfriend's weekly rants about why she shouldn't have to work anymore. But alas, it just hasn't been the same. And if I'm being honest, the nail in the coffin has been seeing these fantasy "analysts" on Twitter spouting nonsense and getting tens of thousands of likes per post. I saw a tweet this week actually encouraging people to draft Jerry Jeudy and then trade him for Bhayshul Tuten after Week 1. Yep, the same Bhayshul Tuten currently going undrafted in 12-man leagues. Like I KNOW I can do better than these people. Or maybe that's just my narcissism talking. Either way, let's dive into some RB analysis or whatever. 

A common narrative within the fantasy community is that you want to invest in running backs who are on good teams. And if we review the last few seasons, this has generally been a beneficial strategy. Let's take a closer look: 

2024: Of the top 15 finishers at RB in PPR leagues, only 2 of them had a team win percentage under 47%: Alvin Kamara & Chuba Hubbard. Furthermore, if we look at the top 15 finishers in points per game to account for missed games, we are again left with 2 that finished with a win percentage under 47%: Alvin Kamara & Chuba Hubbard. 

2023: Of the top 15 finishers at RB in PPR leagues, only 3 of them had a team win percentage under 47%: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, & Tony Pollard. But this time, when we look at the top 15 finishers in points per game to account for missed games, we are instead left with 2 that finished with a win percentage under 47%: Breece Hall & James Conner. 

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN

What do 2024 Alvin, 2024 Chuba, 2023 Breece, 2023 Bijan, 2023 Tony P, & 2023 James Conner have in common? Well, fortunately for us, there IS a pattern to be seen here!

Of these 6 cases, 5 of them feature running backs who recorded 200+ carries & at least 43 receptions, which means that when drafting a RB from a bottom-tier team, there is a clear archetype that we should look for. And when you're deciding between two RBs in your upcoming drafts, these insights can help you narrow down which one actually has the upside to power your fantasy team to the championship. So, let's analyze some of the teams that we expect to be bottom-feeders and see if their backfields have any hidden gems!!

Saints  

Alvin Kamara has finished as a top 5 RB in points per game in back-to-back seasons now. Yes, the Saints are awful. Yes, Spencer Rattler is somehow still employed. But the dire state of the franchise has no effect on Alvin's ability to pile up the fantasy points. Barring injury, Kamara is damn near a LOCK for 200 carries and 43 receptions, and as long as his ADP (average draft position) stays reasonable, I am fine taking him in the late 3rd/early 4th round in every draft I can. Enough said. 

Jaguars 

With this backfield, I'd recommend fantasy managers take a chance on Travis Etienne or Bhayshul Tuten rather than draft Tank Bigsby. Bigsby is a better receiver than he gets credit for, but there's little upside for him to hit that 43-reception threshold with Etienne & Tuten on the roster. Bigbsy will likely fulfill the early-down role for this Liam Coen offense, a role we know can be valuable based on the success of Bucky Irving last year (Shout out Big 7). However, to make a bet on Tank to break out is to make a bet on this Jaguars team to make a BIG jump - because if they finish below that 47% win threshold, we know how much harder it will be for Bigsby to be a true difference maker. But hey, your parents aren't here - make your own decisions!

Jets

This off-season, I've seen FAR too much hype surrounding sophomore Braelon Allen. Yes, he looks like a Madden-created player and seems much more comfortable on the field than he did at points last year. BUT, the numbers don't lie - and this man has a 0% chance of catching 43 passes this season as long as he shares the backfield with Breece Hall. Hall is one of the best pass catchers in the league, and when you couple that receiving upside with the fact that Hall is entering the final year of his contract, you get a path to fantasy glory. The key here is to IGNORE the coach speak. Jets HC Aaron Glenn can talk all he wants about how excited he is to pound the rock with Allen, but he won't get the chance to do that in the 2nd half of games when his team is consistently down by double digits. This isn't Detroit, Mr. Glenn. Welcome to poverty & welcome to the reality where Breece Hall catches 70 passes. 

Giants

Now this situation is tough. On one hand, you have sophomore Tyrone Tracy, who showed some serious upside in his limited action last season. Had he been the starter from Week 1, his 17-game pace would have been 272 carries & 54 receptions, which puts him in the exact range that we're looking for. But is he a lock for that volume with the new addition to the backfield? Rookie Cam Skattebo is best known for his toughness between the tackles, but he's also a more than capable pass catcher, as he recorded 45 receptions in only 13 games during his last season at Arizona State. Assuming both players stay healthy, the most likely scenario is that they split touches and limit each other's upside. But, if I'm going to bet on one to get the volume they need to potentially be a top 15 RB, I'd bet on Tracy. The coaching staff & GM are desperate to keep their jobs, and they may prioritize playing their veterans earlier in the season to show competency. 

Titans

And finally, we have the reigning worst team in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans. Surprisingly, this backfield is one I feel very strongly about, so I'd suggest playing a bit of chess here. Last year, we saw Tony Pollard start the year hot only to struggle with inconsistent volume across the back half of the season. And with sophomore Tyjae Spears currently set to start the season on IR with a high-ankle sprain, Pollard has a decent chance to repeat his hot start this year. If Pollard's ADP stays in the 6th round, he's a safe bet to outperform his draft cost across the first handful of games. 

BUT

I wouldn't stay in these hypothetical flames. The 27-year-old Tony Pollard is not a proper fit for the timeline of this young regime. And as the season drags on, and the Titans set their eyes on the 2026 NFL draft, we can easily see them start to phase out their veterans in favor of young talent. I.E., I think the first half of the season belongs to Pollard, and the second half belongs to Tyjae Spears. Capitalize on Pollard's hot start and then sell him HIGH before it's too late. 

[FantasyByJ]